Trump 1.0 vs. 2.0: Back on Track?

Back on April 8th, the S&P 500 was down 16.9% in the 55 trading days since Inauguration Day on January 20th, but as shown below, the index has recovered all of its initial losses and is currently up 5% since President Trump re-took office. What a comeback!

At this point in Trump's first term back in July 2017, the S&P was sitting on a gain of 8% since Inauguration Day.

Back in 2017, we saw stocks pull back a bit in August but then explode higher from September through December, and the S&P ended up posting a gain of 18% from Inauguration Day 2017 through the end of that year. We'll have to wait and see what the rest of 2025 has in store, but either way, the market has seen an absolutely remarkable comeback from the depths of the Tariff Crash just a few months ago.

Even with the S&P back to new highs and up 5% since Trump's 2nd term began, the US is near the bottom of the pack in terms of country by country stock market performance since Inauguration Day. Below is an updated look at the performance of 45 country ETFs traded on US exchanges since Inauguration Day as well as since Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements in the White House Rose Garden on April 2nd.

The average country ETF is up 16.8% since Trump re-took office, so the US (SPY) is underperforming that average by more than ten percentage points. The US is also still the worst performing of the G7 country ETFs since Inauguration Day, although it's up the fourth most of the G7 countries since April 2nd.

There are six country ETFs that are up 30%+ since Inauguration Day back in January: Greece (GREK), Poland (EPOL), Spain (EWP), Austria (EWO), South Korea (EWY), and Vietnam (VNAM). On the other end of the spectrum, there are five country ETFs in the red since Inauguration Day: Indonesia (EIDO), Thailand (THD), Argentina (ARGT), Turkey (TUR), and Saudi Arabia (KSA).

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