Morning Note - 7/17/25

"All money is a matter of belief." - Adam Smith

Often hailed as the father of modern economics, Adam Smith (who died on this day in 1790) profoundly shaped our understanding of free markets and individual liberty through his seminal works, The Wealth of Nations and The Theory of Moral Sentiments. His ideas on the "invisible hand" and division of labor remain foundational to economic theory, emphasizing how self-interest and cooperation drive prosperity.

Navigating Netflix

The banks and brokers always kick off each earnings season, but Netflix (NFLX) is the company that gets things started on the Tech/Consumer side of things. As shown below, NFLX is heading into its Q2 earnings report tonight in a long-term uptrend, but it has pulled back some in the past couple of weeks after touching up against the top of its one-year uptrend channel at the end of June. At the moment, it's sitting just above support at its 50-day moving average after working off overbought levels.

Below is a snapshot of Netflix (NFLX) from our Earnings Explorer tool, which can be seen on our website here for those with access (Institutional only). After stumbling on sales a few years ago in 2022, NFLX has seen a revenue resurgence with strong beats versus top-line estimates for six straight quarters. If estimates are met, this will be the third straight $10+ billion quarter for NFLX and the first above $11 billion.

There is some negative historical precedent for Netflix's Q2 earnings reports specifically, though...